Race fitness and handling the conditions look the key to a tough card. Sticking with a mare that’s been good to us, playing one at massive odds and we’ve got a banker in the quaddie to let us load up the other three legs.
TOO GOOD TOO HARD (Race 4 No 1)
I’m keen to stick with this lightly raced mare and I think we may end up getting a decent price. She’s got potential to get to black type races and they did test her at Group III level at the end of last prep when only beaten 2-1/2 lengths behind subsequent Gruop I winners Tofane and Pippie. Her fitness gave out fresh when run down late before a strong win second-up in an open Benchmark 78. She’s never seen a heavy track, but she did sprint hard on a soft (7) at just her second career start so I’m expecting her to handle it so long as it’s not bottomless. Back to mares grade and extremely well in with the 3kg claim for Campbell Rawillier, she’ll love the step to 1200m to be tough to beat. BET: WIN
MISS VIXEN (Race 8 No 7)
Having a swing for the fences here at $67 in early betting on this Cindy Alderson-trained mare. She was flying last prep and her best win was when she got onto a soft (7) track at Caulfield over 1200m where she charged home to go clear over the last 50m. She’s never been a mare that fires in either of her first two runs back from a spell, she was beaten six lengths second-up last time in before steaming home to just miss at her third run back from a spell so I’m not overly concerned by her two runs back from a spell. Yet to see a heavy track but bred to swim, if she was to bounce back to her best, she can run a huge race. BET: EACH-WAY or PLACE
BUFFALO RIVER (Race 9 No 13)
There’s a number of short-priced favourites on the card but the one I’d be confident to run all my multi’s into and run as a banker in the quaddie is this Mike Moroney import. He showed a stack of ability in his first Australian prep and looks to have returned even better. Under 60kg in a much easier race first-up, he did a bit of work to lead on the heavy (8), cruised clear on the home turn and without being asked for everything he bolted in. He’ll take good improvement for the run, has no issue with the ground and he’ll have a decent break over those that look to be any sort of danger. Hard to bet early with scratching’s likely but he’ll start odds on. BET: WIN
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